Viewing archive of Friday, 27 February 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Feb 27 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 058 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Unspotted Region 1013
(N26W19) produced an A3 x-ray event at 27/0714Z with a subsequent
slow moving, asymmetric CME first observed in LASCO C2 imagery
lifting off the NW limb at 27/0906Z. A 9 degree filament located at
S38W46 was observed to have lifted off the disk between 26/2358Z to
27/1423Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet to unsettled with an
isolated active period observed at middle latitudes at 27/1200Z.
This activity was most likely produced by a low-latitude extension
of the southern polar coronal hole. During the summary period,
solar winds speed gradually increased from about 400 km/s to near
650 km/s by 27/1200Z and maintained that velocity through the end of
the period. During the elevated portion of the high speed flow, the
Bz component of the IMF did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet for the next three days (28
February - 02 March). The CME mentioned earlier is not expected to
be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Feb 069 Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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