Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 February 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Feb 12 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1012 (S05E48)
produced todays only flare, a B4 at 1619Z. The event was associated
with a relatively symmetrical wave that was well defined in the
STEREO-B EUVI 195 imagery. The remainder of the disk was quiet and
stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (13-15 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the first day (13 February) and partway
through the second day (14 February). During the latter part of the
second day and continuing through the third day (15 February) a
favorably positioned coronal hole is expected to increase activity
to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 070 Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 005/005-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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