Viewing archive of Monday, 26 January 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jan 26 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. The
visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A recurrent
enhancement in solar wind speed began late on 25 January. Solar wind
speed increased from 280 km/s to about 380 km/s. A period of
sustained southward Bz between 26/1000 - 1600Z produced the most
disturbed periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels. Isolated active
periods, mostly at high latitudes, are expected on January 27.
Mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods are expected on January
28 and 29.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 070 Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 26 Jan 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 008/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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