Viewing archive of Monday, 19 January 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jan 19 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity remained very low. Ephemeral Region 1011
(S12W25) emerged early in the period and was spotless by days end.
It sported a few penumbraless spots at its peak and old Cycle 23
magnetic polarity. Little else of significance occurred or was
noted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to stay
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A recurrent high-speed
solar wind stream brought short-lived active conditions to all
latitudes early in the day. The disturbance quickly waned, and quiet
conditions prevailed by the end of the interval.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 071 Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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