Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 November 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Nov 25 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled. Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated the onset of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities gradually increased from 285 km/s to 619 km/s during the period. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt reached a peak of 24 nT early in the period. The IMF Bz ranged from +18 to -15 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled with isolated active periods possible on 26 November. Isolated periods of minor storm conditions at high latitudes are also possible on 26 November. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 27 November. Conditions will return to quiet on 28 November as the coronal hole high speed subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Nov 068
  Predicted   26 Nov-28 Nov  069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        25 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov  002/000
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Nov  012/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov  010/012-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%05%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%05%
Minor storm15%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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