Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 November 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Nov 12 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1008 (N33W24)
produced todays only event, a B1 flare at 0009Z. The group appears
to be quiet and stable and apparently is no longer growing.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days. However, there continues to be just a
slight chance for an isolated C-class event from 1008.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was high during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the first and second days of the forecast
period (13-14 November). A small increase to quiet to unsettled is
expected on the third day (15 November) in response to slightly
elevated solar wind velocity from a favorably positioned weak
coronal hole. The presence of the elevated solar wind speed has also
been indicated by observations at the STEREO-B spacecraft.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 071 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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