Viewing archive of Friday, 17 October 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Oct 17 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1005
(N26W42) decayed to spotless plage. Region 1006 (S26W78) remained
stable with a single spot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet levels for the forecast period (18 to
20 October).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Oct 070 Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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