Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 July 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jul 22 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. Region 1000 (S12W31) is spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The solar wind data at
ACE indicated the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar
wind velocity increased significantly at about 1300Z to values
ranging from 580-630 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active during day one (23 July), mostly
unsettled on day two (24 July), and quiet on day three (25 July).
The increase in activity is expected due to effects from the
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 066 Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 22 Jul 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 015/015-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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