Viewing archive of Friday, 2 May 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 May 02 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Wind speed
measured at the ACE spacecraft reached a maximum of 517 km/s at
02/0719Z and Bz ranged between +/- 8 nT. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the summary period
(03 - 05 May) due to a coronal hole high speed stream. There is a
slight chance for minor storm conditions at middle latitudes and
major storm levels at high latitudes during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 May 068 Predicted 03 May-05 May 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 02 May 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 010/015-010/015-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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