Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 April 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Apr 26 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 117 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The solar disk is void of spots. Nonetheless there was a B3/Sf flare at 1408Z from an unnumbered area of spotless plage near N08E09. The flare was associated with a wave that was visible in EUV imagery on STEREO and SOHO, type II and type IV radio sweeps, as well as a slow, faint, full halo CME visible in coronagraph imagery. The estimated plane of sky speed for the CME was around 430-480 km/s.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed remains somewhat elevated (around 460-500 km/s) and density very low (around 1 p/cc), consistent with the decaying phase of a high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next two days (27-28 April). A small increase is expected late on the third day (29 April) in response to today's CME event: activity is expected to be unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods after the disturbance arrives.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Apr 069
  Predicted   27 Apr-29 Apr  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        26 Apr 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Apr  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr  005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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