Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 March 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Mar 12 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk
was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active under the continued
influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind
speed at ACE occasionally reached 700 km/s during the 24 hour
period. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit
remained at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at unsettled to occasionally active levels, with
a chance for minor storms at high latitudes, during days 1 and 2
(13-14 March), Day 3 (15 Mar) is expected to be mostly quiet as the
high speed stream wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 069 Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 007/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 008/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 04% | 04% | 01% |
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