Viewing archive of Monday, 10 March 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Mar 10 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 985 (S10W83) was
numbered today. It is currently a BXO group with an area of 90
millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to the
influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind
at the ACE spacecraft is elevated to approximately 700 km/s at
forecast issue time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels with isolated minor
storm periods possible for days one and two (11-12 March). Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on day three (13 March) as the
effects of the coronal hole high speed stream wane.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Mar 070 Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 10 Mar 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 014/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 010/010-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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