Viewing archive of Monday, 21 January 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jan 21 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
solar disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind speed
measurements from the ACE spacecraft have been declining. At the
end of the summary period wind speed was below 550 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels throughout the forecast period
(22 - 24 January).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jan 072 Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 21 Jan 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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