Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 January 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jan 02 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 980 (S08E58) produced a
long duration C1 flare at 02/1000Z. An associated CME was observed
on LASCO C3 imagery at 02/1006Z. This region is currently
classified as a CSO beta sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There remains a slight chance for an isolated M-class
event from Region 980.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at
high latitudes for the forecast period (3-5 January). Elevated
activity is forecast due to possible effects from transients
associated with the recent C-class flares.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jan 080 Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 085/087/090 90 Day Mean 02 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 006/008-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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