Viewing archive of Friday, 14 December 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Dec 14 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 978 (S09W40)
produced several low-level C-class x-ray flares during the past
twenty-four hours. The region has decayed in white light area, and
is now in a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low to low levels. Region 978 has the potential of further
C-class activity, and a slight chance of an isolated low-level
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels for the forecast
period (15 to 17 December). On 15 December expect conditions to
continue at quiet levels. 16 December should see a slight increase
in activity to include unsettled conditions. A recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to impact the geomagnetic field
on 17 December. Active to minor storm periods at middle latitudes,
and major storm conditions at high latitudes, are expected with this
coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 092 Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 090/090/085 90 Day Mean 14 Dec 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 005/005-008/010-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
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