Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 December 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Dec 04 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. A slow moving CME
was observed on the west limb at approximately 04/0430Z. This CME
appears to have originated on the backside of the Sun and is not
expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low though there is a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare
from Region 977 (S05E26).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the forecast period, 05 - 07 December.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 074 Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 04 Dec 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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