Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 November 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Nov 24 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was very low. New Region 975 (N02W15)
was numbered today. This Beta-type sunspot group has displayed
significant plage fluctuations throughout the region center.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active conditions. The solar wind
data observed at the ACE spacecraft indicates the continued
influence of the coronal hole high speed stream. The solar wind
speed has increased to around 645 km/s with Bz fluctuations between
+/- 5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions on
25-26 November. Predominantly quiet levels are expected on 27
November as the coronal hole rotates out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Nov 071 Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 24 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 010/015-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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