Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 October 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Oct 14 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet for 15-16 October. Quiet to
unsettled conditions, with a chance for isolated active periods, are
expected for 17 October due to a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 067 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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