Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 August 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Aug 30 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (31 August - 02 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be initially quiet on the first day (31 August), but
conditions are expected to increase to unsettled with a chance for
active periods late in the day in response to a favorably positioned
coronal hole. Unsettled to active levels should continue through the
second day (01 September). Activity levels should decline to mostly
unsettled levels on the third day (02 September).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 072 Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 30 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 008/015-015/025-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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