Viewing archive of Friday, 20 July 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jul 20 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 963 has
rotated off of the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to active conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled for 21 July due to a recurrent coronal
hole. There is the possibility of isolated active periods.
Conditions are expected to return to quiet for 22 - 23 July.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jul 067 Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 20 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 010/015-005/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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