Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 March 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Mar 18 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The visible solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed varied during the past 24 hours, from initial values around 520 km/s, to values around 430 km/s at approximately 1540Z, to values around 460 km/s at forecast issue time. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (19-21 March).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Mar 071
  Predicted   19 Mar-21 Mar  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        18 Mar 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Mar  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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