Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 March 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Mar 04 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. Solar wind
data indicate a solar sector boundary crossing at about 04/0200Z.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the first day (5 March). Conditions should
increase slightly to quiet to unsettled for the 2nd and 3rd days
(6-7 March) due to recurrent effects from a small, low-latitude
coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 073 Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 073/073/070 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 000/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 005/007-007/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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