Viewing archive of Monday, 29 January 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 29 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 940 (S05E35) produced a C3/SF flare at 29/1656Z. Newly numbered Region 941 (S09E69) is classified as an Hsx Alpha group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 940.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Major and severe storm conditions were observed at high latitudes. A co-rotating interaction region indicating the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream was observed at ACE starting at approximately 1000Z. Solar wind speed increased to approximately 700 km/s as the IMF increased to 20 nT and the Bz component varied between +/- 15 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days. Isolated minor to major storm periods are possible on 30-31 January due to the coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Jan 087
  Predicted   30 Jan-01 Feb  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        29 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan  002/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Jan  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb  015/020-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm15%10%05%

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