Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 January 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 11 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There remains a chance for isolated C-flare activity from
Region 933 (S05W84).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed has increased
steadily the past 48 hours to a current level of approximately 500
km/s. Accompanying values from the ACE magnetometer and SWEPAM
instruments suggest the increased solar wind speed is due to an
apparent high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to unsettled for the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 084 Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 080/080/075 90 Day Mean 11 Jan 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 006/008-006/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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