Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 January 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 11 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. There remains a chance for isolated C-flare activity from Region 933 (S05W84).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed has increased steadily the past 48 hours to a current level of approximately 500 km/s. Accompanying values from the ACE magnetometer and SWEPAM instruments suggest the increased solar wind speed is due to an apparent high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to unsettled for the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Jan 084
  Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan  080/080/075
  90 Day Mean        11 Jan 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  004/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Jan  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  006/008-006/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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