Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 January 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 03 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Newly numbered Region 935 (S06E51) is a magnetically simple Hhx class group. Region 933 (S04E27) has remained quiescent.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next three days (04 - 06 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. Solar wind speed reached approximately 700 km/s today and remains elevated due to the coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 04 January due to the coronal hole high speed stream. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 05 - 06 January.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Jan 081
  Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        03 Jan 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan  012/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Jan  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  010/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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