Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 January 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 03 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Newly numbered Region 935
(S06E51) is a magnetically simple Hhx class group. Region 933
(S04E27) has remained quiescent.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels for the next three days (04 - 06 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. Solar wind speed
reached approximately 700 km/s today and remains elevated due to the
coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on 04 January due to the coronal
hole high speed stream. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 05
- 06 January.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 081 Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 012/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 010/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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