Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 December 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 14 2258 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 930 (S05W47) continues to exhibit a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. The region is showing a possible gradual separation of penumbra in its Delta area.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Isolated X-class flares from Region 930 remains a possibility.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field reached major to severe storm levels. The ACE satellite observed the shock from the 13 December CME at 14/1356 UTC. A sudden impulse was observed at the Boulder magnetometer at 14/1416 UTC with a deviation of 26 nT. Periods of major to severe storming occurred between 14/1200 UTC and 14/1800 UTC. Solar wind speed is currently 900 km/s. A 100 MeV proton event commenced at 13/0300 UTC, reached maximum at 13/0525 UTC with 88.7 pfu and ended at 14/1150 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV event that started 13/0310 UTC is still in progress with a current level of 21.7 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electrons reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from active to major storm levels for 15 December. This activity is due to the CME observed on 13 December. Unsettled to active conditions are expected for 16 and 17 December.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
Class M60%60%60%
Class X35%35%35%
Proton99%30%30%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Dec 093
  Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        14 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Dec  040/070
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  040/045-012/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%30%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm50%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%35%35%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm60%10%10%

All times in UTC

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