Viewing archive of Monday, 11 December 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 11 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 930 (S05W07) produced
three C-flares; the largest of which was a C5.7 at 11/0818 UTC.
Region 930, a beta gamma delta magnetic group, has increased
slightly in area and developed several new spots in the northwest
section of the region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a chance for M-flares from Region 930.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE
has increased slightly to approximately 680 km/s. The greater than
10 MeV proton event that began on 06/1555 UTC continues and is
currently around 17 pfu's. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue to be quiet to unsettled for 12 - 14 December.
Isolated active periods are possible on 12 December. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event is expected to cross below 10 pfu's within
the next 24 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 60% | 20% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 092 Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 11 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 008/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 008/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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