Viewing archive of Monday, 11 December 2006

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 11 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 930 (S05W07) produced three C-flares; the largest of which was a C5.7 at 11/0818 UTC. Region 930, a beta gamma delta magnetic group, has increased slightly in area and developed several new spots in the northwest section of the region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with a chance for M-flares from Region 930.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE has increased slightly to approximately 680 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 06/1555 UTC continues and is currently around 17 pfu's. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue to be quiet to unsettled for 12 - 14 December. Isolated active periods are possible on 12 December. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to cross below 10 pfu's within the next 24 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
Class M 25%25%25%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton60%20%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Dec 092
  Predicted    12 Dec-14 Dec  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        11 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  008/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Dec  008/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm 15%10%05%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%

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