Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 December 2006

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 10 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 930 (S05E06) was only responsible for several B-class flares. However, this region has developed a delta within the southern penumbra of the leader spot and is now classified as a beta gamma delta magnetic group with approximately 440 millionths of area.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class activity from Region 930.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE is currently elevated around 620 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton event crossed below 100 pfu's at 10/1220 UTC and is decreasing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 11 December. On 12 and 13 December, conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end in the next 24 to 48 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
Class M 25%25%15%
Class X 10%10%05%
Proton80%40%05%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Dec 090
  Predicted    11 Dec-13 Dec  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        10 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Dec  008/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm 15%10%05%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%

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