Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 December 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 10 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 930 (S05E06) was
only responsible for several B-class flares. However, this region
has developed a delta within the southern penumbra of the leader
spot and is now classified as a beta gamma delta magnetic group with
approximately 440 millionths of area.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class activity from Region 930.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE is
currently elevated around 620 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event crossed below 100 pfu's at 10/1220 UTC and is decreasing. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 11 December. On 12 and 13
December, conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end in the next 24
to 48 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 80% | 40% | 05% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Dec 090 Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 10 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 008/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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