Viewing archive of Friday, 8 December 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 08 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 930 (S05E32) has produced only B-class activity during the past 24 hours. Region 930 is no longer as magnetically complex and now has a Beta-Gamma configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a chance for M-class activity from Region 930.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. Transient flow from the CME associated with the X9 event on 05 December was observed at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 08/0400Z. The IMF Bz component ranged between approximately +/- 10 nT. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 06/1555Z continues, but is on the decline. The maximum observed flux so far is 1980 pfu at 07/1930Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 07/0115Z continues, but is also on the decline. The maximum observed flux so far is 19 pfu at 07/1610Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels with isolated major storm periods on 09 December due to CME activity associated with the M6 and X6 flares of 06 December. Expect unsettled to active conditions on 10 - 11 December. The greater than 10 Mev proton event is expected to end late on 09 December. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end within the next 12 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
Class M35%35%35%
Class X10%10%10%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Dec 096
  Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        08 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  014/025
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Dec  025/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  040/050-020/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm40%10%05%
Major-severe storm20%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm45%20%10%
Major-severe storm30%10%05%

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