Viewing archive of Friday, 24 November 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 24 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
disk is currently spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A
favorably positioned recurrent high speed coronal hole stream was
responsible for the elevated conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. A return to predominantly
quiet levels is expected on 27 November as the coronal hole rotates
out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Nov 077 Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 24 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 008/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 012/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 012/015-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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