Viewing archive of Friday, 27 October 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Oct 27 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. A new region
emerged today, Region 919 (S15W01) consists of four sunspots
exhibiting a Bxo beta magnetic structure.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Isolated major storm
conditions may be possible with the expected onset of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream. Isolated active conditions may
occur on 29 October as the coronal hole wanes. A return to quiet to
unsettled conditions is expected on 30 October.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 072 Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 27 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 005/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 018/025-008/015-004/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
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