Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 September 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 19 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 910 (S09E37)
produced occasional B-class flares. A weak Type II radio sweep was
observed at 18/2356Z, which was associated with a faint CME from
Region 910. The CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 910.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The disturbed periods were
in response to a high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind speed
was near 650 km/s, but gradually declined to under 500 km/s by the
end of the period. The greater than 2MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Sep 073 Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 19 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 016/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 008/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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