Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 September 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 16 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Only B-class activity has
been observed for the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (17 - 19 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active periods
on 17 - 18 September due to a geoeffective coronal hole high speed
stream. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 19 September.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Sep 079 Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 078/075/075 90 Day Mean 16 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 000/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 010/015-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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