Viewing archive of Monday, 11 September 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 11 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for 12 September. Predominately
quiet conditions are expected for 13-14 September.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Sep 085 Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 11 Sep 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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