Viewing archive of Friday, 8 September 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 08 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 909 (S09W04)
produced a long duration B5 event at 08/1058 UTC. LASCO imagery
observed a faint halo CME, however, data was too scarce to be sure
about the event. There were three low level B-class flares reported
during the observed period, but no direct correlation can be made
with the CME activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class event from Region 909.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet. Quiet to unsettled conditions
are possible for 11 September due to a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Sep 087 Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 08 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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