Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 September 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 05 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was very low. New Regions 907 (S13E44)
and 908 (S13E71) were numbered today. New Region 908 is likely the
return of old Region 904 (S14,L=121).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed is
still elevated at approximately 500 km/s but has been in decline
this period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 080 Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 080/085/085 90 Day Mean 05 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 015/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 006/010-004/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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