Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 August 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Aug 29 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been low. During the past 24 hours
region 905 (S08W35) has produced two C-class flares, a C1.4 and a
C2.1. This region has shown signs of decay and is now a magnetic
class Beta sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been predominately quiet to unsettled. The
solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 550 km/s due to a
coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the forecast period (30 August - 1
September). Due to the currently geoeffective coronal hole high
speed stream there may be isolated periods where the geomagnetic
field is unsettled for day one of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 073 Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 29 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 005/010-002/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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