Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 August 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Aug 16 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 904 (S12W15) produced a
long duration C3.6/Sf flare with maximum occurring at 16/1617Z. An
associated partial, or possibly full, halo CME was first observed on
LASCO imagery at 16/1630Z. The estimated plane-of-sky speed was
about 800 km/s. A Type IV radio sweep was associated with this
event. In spite of today's activity, Region 904 has generally
remained unchanged during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet on 17-18 August. Unsettled to
active conditions, with isolated periods of minor storm levels, are
expected on 19 August due to effects of the above-mentioned CME.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 086 Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 086/090/090 90 Day Mean 16 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 005/005-005/005-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
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