Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 August 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Aug 10 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 904 (S13E63) produced a
C4 flare at 10/1808 UTC. This region is a particularly hot and
complex region for this point in the solar cycle. It continues to
be in a growth phase and has caused an increase in x-ray background
levels.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a possibility of M-class activity from Region 904.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| Class M | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 080 Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 080/085/085 90 Day Mean 10 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 005/005-005/005-003/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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