Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 June 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jun 28 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Newly numbered region 898 (S06E66) produced a B5 flare at 28/1932 UTC. Region 897 (N05E29) has grown to approximately 110 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Over the past 24 hours, solar wind speed increased to approximately 575 km/s due to the coronal hole high speed stream while Bz varied between +/- 10 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 29 June, with mostly quiet conditions expected on 30 June to 01 July.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jun to 01 Jul
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Jun 084
  Predicted   29 Jun-01 Jul  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        28 Jun 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Jun  014/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul  010/015-005/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun to 01 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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