Viewing archive of Monday, 5 June 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jun 05 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 892
(S08E53) continues in a growth phase and now exhibits an EKI
beta-gamma sunspot group with a possible delta configuration in the
leader spots. The overlying plage field has also intensified, but
flare activity was limited to isolated B-class events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 892 has potential for C-class activity. An isolated M-class
flare is possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on 06 June. A large recurrent
coronal hole is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on
07 June. Expect active levels with occasional minor storm periods on
07 and 08 June.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jun 078 Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 05 Jun 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 005/008-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 50% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
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