Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 April 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Apr 22 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C2 x-ray flare which reached
maximum at 1639UTC was the largest event of the day. B-class flares
were more numerous and all activity was seen to be centered on
active regions just rotating onto the disk in the southern
hemisphere. The sole spot group, Region 874 (S02W39), was quiet as
it continued to decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Expect isolated C-class flares during the next three
days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was moderately disturbed early in the period,
as conditions ranged from active to brief major storming at high
latitudes. This activity was due to strong Alfven waves in the solar
wind that caused periods of southward IMF to reach -15 nT at
times. The solar wind returned to more normal conditions during the
last 12 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the interval. Brief active
conditions may occur in the near term as the solar wind speed,
though decreasing, is still above 500 km/s.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 082 Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 22 Apr 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 010/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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