Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 April 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Apr 20 2206 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 871 (S06W79) produced a couple B-class flares during the period. Region 874 (S01W11) continues to exhibit steady growth in spot area and magnetic complexity. No new regions were numbered today.IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 874 has a slight chance of producing
an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak recurrent
coronal hole may lead to isolated active periods on 23 April.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Apr 079 Predicted 21 Apr-23 Apr 080/080/085 90 Day Mean 20 Apr 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Apr 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr 005/008-005/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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