Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 April 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Apr 04 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 865 (S11W35) produced a
C4 flare at 03/2126 UTC. The penumbral area of the two major leading
spots has merged in this region. The trailing spots appear to be in
decay. This region is classified as a beta gamma magnetic group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible from Region 865.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible on 05 and 06 April due to a coronal hole high speed stream.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 07 April.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
| Class M | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Apr 100 Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 04 Apr 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 008/012-008/012-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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