Viewing archive of Friday, 17 March 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Mar 17 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. There are
just two small, unipolar sunspot groups on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 18 March. A high speed coronal
hole stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 19
March. Expect active conditions with minor storm periods at high
latitudes on both 19 and 20 March.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 072 Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 17 Mar 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 005/010-010/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
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