Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 March 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Mar 08 0005 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 856 (S08W38)
produced a long-duration B2 flare at 07/1614Z. A six degree
disappearing filament, centered at N02E24, was reported between
06/1000Z and 06/2255Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active conditions
occurred from 07/0000Z to 07/0600Z as a result of a prolonged period
of southward IMF Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. On 09-10
March, predominantly unsettled conditions are expected, with
possible isolated active periods. This increased activity is due to
a high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Mar 074 Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 07 Mar 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 008/010-010/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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