Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 February 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Feb 19 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. No significant
activity was noted today. The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The ACE
spacecraft indicates that weak coronal hole effects began near
19/1430Z with a meager rise in wind speed and temperature.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Active to isolated
minor storm conditions are possible on 22 February due to a
favorably positioned coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 077 Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 006/008-006/010-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
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