Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 February 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Feb 11 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low. LASCO imagery showed a
CME on the SE limb beginning at about 10/2330Z which does not appear
to be Earth directed. One spot remains visible in Region 853
(S09W78).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to a recurrent
coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Quiet conditions should return
on 13 Feb.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 076 Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 080/085/085 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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