Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 January 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jan 05 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 843 (N12W64) produced an
impulsive C4/Sf flare at 0923 UTC. There was a Type II sweep
(estimated shock speed approx. 1100 km/s) associated with the flare.
This event followed soon after a long duration B8 x-ray flare from
nearby Region 841 (N13W91) which attained maximum at 0742 UTC. The
activity was preceded by plage brightenings in both regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 843 could produce an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. A high speed solar wind stream
may boost activity slightly during the last two days of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 083 Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 05 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 005/005-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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